Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
